Just recently, a blog page in the subject of econometrics from the University of Icade has published a study made by two students from 3ºC, Ignacio Rodríguez Amador and Alvaro Sastre Esteban. The students aimed to establish a model in order to calculate the potential danger of each running of the bulls. They use their knowledge learned from their course but they are also self-critical of the exactness of some of their own conclusions, given the volatile nature of some of the original data and consequently of the conclusions which they reached.
However, their study does at least show a certain scientific seriousness compared to the many opinions expressed by people and simply based on guesswork and subjective opinions. The clearest and most surprising conclusions reached by these students is perhaps the statement that – contrary to most beliefs – a running of the bulls which takes place over wet ground causes less injuries than a running over dry ground. And every extra kilo of weight over the average weight of the six bulls in each run means a higher number of injuries. Each month in the age of the bull over the average age means a drop in the number of injuries at end of end of the run. Each bull which has a color which could be confused with that of the bell-oxen mean an increase in the number of injuries in that particular running of the bulls.
The study and all the details can be checked out here and in the post of the blog page. For part of their study, Ignacio Rodríguez Amador and Alvaro Sastre Esteban used data from Sanfermin.com as well as from the Archives from the casa de Misericordia in order to make their calculations and achieve their purpose, which was to give a practicality to the theory outlined in their subject.
